Full members had an exciting ride yesterday
with an advised each way double on  JESSIES DREAM
and  FIRST LIEUTENANT.

FIRST LIEUTENANT won setting up JESSIES DREAM
to complete an 87/1 double at Starting Price. Agony to watch with
JESSIES DREAM going odds on in running and looking
like winning. Wasn’t to be though with Jessies Dream
beaten by a mere neck.

Still a decent payout on the place side but so so close to a monster payout
for Full members.

You can read Guy’s reasoning and logic for these two  at link below

Close To Big Cigar

As Sods law would dicate the free blog race was a bit of a dog.

Sticking to our long term value principles however we ae not going for a
short priced hot pot on the free blog today.

Another big price horse for you.

CHELTENHAM 4.40

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Handicap Chase)
(Amateur Riders) (CLASS 2) (5yo+ 0-140) 3m1f110y

6/1 Junior, 15/2 Galant Nuit, 10/1 Saddlers Storm
12/1 Pomme Tiepy, 14/1 Can´t Buy Time, Galaxy Rock
16/1 Faasel, 16/1 Far More Serious, 16/1 Mostly Bob
16/1 Richard´s Sundance, 18/1 Fredo, 20/1 Alderley Rover
20/1 Billie Magern, 25/1 Cornish Sett, 25/1 Khachaturian
25/1 Minella Theatre, Sheriff Hutton, 28/1 Massini Man
33/1 Burren Legend, 33/1 Dance Island, 33/1 Deal Done
33/1 Den Of Iniquity, 33/1 Teddy´s Reflection
40/1 Palypso De Creek.

* The Kim Muir is a 25f Handicap Chase for Amateurs
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* GALANT NUIT was 3rd in last years race
* I have a problem with him having 1 run this year
* I looked at every handicap chase in March at 3m +
* Those with 13 or more career starts and 1 run that year
* There were a few winners but none were aged 7 like him
* They also scored very badly with absences
* GALANT NUIT has been off 96 days as well
* There are 75 Handicap Chases at the festival at all trips
* Since 1993 that has meant 75 Festival Handicap Chases
* Horses aged 6 and 7 won 16 of these races
* None of these had just 1 or 2 runs that season
* No 6 or 7 year old won with 1-2 runs this season
* In fact there were only 3 that did it with 1-2-3 that year
* All 3 of those horses had Under 11st weight
* GALANT NUIT fails that as well
* I think he would be better on softer ground
* Only 2 horses aged 7 have won this since 1992
* Both had 5 + runs that season and ran within a month
* GALANT NUIT has just 1 run and a long break

* Older horses aged 11 or more are 0-60 in this race
* CORNISH SETT is too old after a heavy defeat last time
* FAR MORE SERIOUS has to go as an 11 year old
* Especially with a high weight and no Graded form
* Exposed horses have to be certain types
* I dont want the ones lightly raced this year
* Horses with 21 + runs in hurdles + chases won 6 races
* Those with 1-2-3 runs that year were 0-47
* FAASEL has to go exposed with 1 run this season
* RICHARD´S SUNDANCE also fails that
* CAN´T BUY TIME looks underraced now he’s exposed
* POMME TIEPY fails that and is a Mare
* I looked at this race and the Festival Handicap
* These two races at the 3m Handicaps at the festival
* I looked at exposed horses in both races
* Those with 1-2-3  runs that season were just 3-116
* None were aged 6-7-8-9 (0-45)
* RICHARD´S SUNDANCE – POMME TIEPY fail that
* CAN´T BUY TIME fail that
* All 3 had form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 before
* RICHARD´S SUNDANCE fails that as well
* CAN´T BUY TIME fails that as well
* Exposed horses with 1-2-3-4 runs this year struggled
* Those absent more than a Month were just 1-58
* None won when carrying more than 11st 1lbs
* RICHARD´S SUNDANCE fails all that and has a poor profile
* CAN´T BUY TIME – POMME TIEPY fail that as well
* BURREN LEGEND comes out badly
* Exposed and lacking Grade 1-2 form he’s weak
* MASSINI MAN is out of his depth
* Inexperienced and winning a Hunter Chase last time
* PALYPSO DE CREEK looks underraced this year to me
* Exposed and coming from hurdles he looks vulnerable
* SHERIFF HUTTON is exposed and comes from 2m 5f
* Exposed horses from 3m or shorter last time were 1-79
* All Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* No exposed horse won carrying more than 11st
* SHERIFF HUTTON also has that against him
* SHERIFF HUTTON could have problems on this track
* TEDDY´S REFLECTION is wrong from a Graded Novice
* BILLIE MAGERN is wrong from a Graded Novice
* DANCE ISLAND  is wrong from a Graded Novice
* DEN OF INIQUITY has been absent 75 days
* No horse as old as him won with that absence
* Horses aged 7 only have a 2-56 record
* None like DEAL DONE had under 5 runs that year
* Horses aged 7 from 3m 1f or shorter were 0-45
* BILLIE MAGERN fails that
* DEAL DONE fails that coming from 2m 5f
* ALDERLEY ROVER fails that as well
* GALAXY ROCK fails that as well
* FREDO fails that as well
* Horses coming from Novice Chases are 0-23 in this race
* ALDERLEY ROVER has that to overcome
* I looked at every Handicap Chase at the festival
* I looked for 7 year olds from Novice Chases
* None won without Grade 1 form before
* ALDERLEY ROVER looks wrong from a Novice Chase
* GALAXY ROCK is also 7 from a Novice Chase
* He has no form beyond a Class 2 race and looks wrong
* No 7yo with his profile has won at the festival before
* FREDO has the same problems as well
* He is 7 from a Novice race with no Graded form
* I looked at this race and the Festival Handicap
* These two races at the 3m Handicaps at the festival
* No winners of either race came from 2n 3f or shorter
* SADDLERS STORM fails that and looks wrong
* I can ignore the fact Irish Horses are 0-35 in this race
* I cant ignore some of his other problems
* SADDLERS STORM has a high weight to overcome
* No horses did that with under 4 runs this season
* With just 2 runs and up in distance he looks opposable
* MINELLA THEATRE has a poor profile
* I dont like him out of form from 2m 6f
* MOSTLY BOB fell in the Racing Post Chase last time
* The 1994 winner was well beaten in that race and won this
* He has a tough weight of 11st 8lbs
* This race has been won by higher weights
* They were all unexposed with 4 + runs that year like him
* He only has 4 Chase starts and thats a problem
* He fell at the 3rd fence last time so he’s really had just 3
* He has fallen in two of his 4 Chase starts so far
* That leaves him quite short on experience
* I feel its asking too much of him with a big weight

POSSIBLES

* JUNIOR has been very well touted for this race
* He is clearly strongly fancied and well handicapped
* JUNIOR  has 1-2-3 Runs this season
* He has Grade 1 form which is important in that regard
* The absence doesnt worry me
* There are so few decent profiles he does stand out
* I do just prefer the chance of KHACHATURIAN more

SELECTION

* KHACHATURIAN stands out to me
* KHACHATURIAN was 5th in last years race
* He was only beaten 10 lengths last year
* He led and jumped the last in second place
* No shame at all in being caught by Ballybriggs
* Last years run proved this track is fine for him
* Statistically he was dead last year
* He ws only a 7yo the weakest age
* He lacked a recent run last year
* He has that today and is now a better age
* He had to come from 2m 5f last time
* Horses of any age doing that have awful records
* He came from Novice Handicaps last year
* This year he doesn’t and has more experience
* Last year he had a crippling weight for a 7yo
* This year he is 8 and races off a 3lbs lower mark
* He may well have gone off too fast last years
* He is a bigger price this year than he was last year

Bet each way

25/1 available at s james and betfred for 4 places
or if you prefer 22/1 at Blue Sq paying 5 places.

****************************************************
****************************************************

Posted under Major Horse Races

In the Kim Muir I am heavily involved with two bets.
I have backed SHILLINGSTONE at 8/1 and I have a
nice bet at 20/1 on BOYCHUK as well. I have to bet
BOYCHUK as a saver but one that wins plenty too.
What I like about this pair is not so much the profiles
they have but the negative profiles many of the other
horses have. I am not just talking about them being
unsuitable for todays race. I am talking about horses
who have profiles that wouldnt have won any chase
at Cheltenham in the last 15 years such is their lack
of neccesary requirements. Some Powerful negatives
in this race. I know there are 24 runners and luck will
be important but take your time when reading why I
am on them and you will hopefully agree I have made
a strong case for both horses winning this race.

**********************************************

CHELTENHAM 4.40

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup
(Handicap Chase) (Amateur Riders)
(CLASS 2) (5yo+ 0-140) 3m1f110y

13/2 Ballabriggs, 7/1 Shillingstone, 8/1 Galant Nuit
12/1 Isn´t That Lucky, 12/1 Nostringsattached
16/1 Faltering Fullback, 16/1 Finger Onthe Pulse
16/1 I´moncloudnine, 16/1 Khachaturian, 20/1 Boychuk
20/1 Faasel, 20/1 Heathcliff, 20/1 Kia Kaha, 20/1 Lysander
25/1 Buck The Legend, 25/1 Hello Bud, 25/1 Ma Yahab
25/1 Saphir Des Bois, 25/1 Zitenka, 40/1 Oodachee
50/1 Burren Legend, 50/1 Freds Benefit, 50/1 Mr Robert
50/1 Parsons Legacy.

* The Kim Muir is a 25f Handicap Chase for Amateurs
* There has been 16 renewals since 1992

* BURREN LEGEND surely wont win absent 523 days
* MR ROBERT has been off too long for an exposed horse
* He has too much weight for an exposed horse as well
* PARSONS LEGACY wont be fit enough
* FREDS BENEFIT has a horrible profile
* I couldnt bet an exposed horse from a 2m race
* FAASEL has a weak profile
* No exposed horse had under 4 runs this season
* ZITENKA probably isnt good enough
* Nothing too much wrong with his profile
* I cant match him to any past winners though
* I suspect he will find this too warm
* I would have to worry about the track as well

* Horses aged 11 or more are 0-57 in this race
* Cheltenham have had 70 handicap chases
* Thats 70 races at the Festival at any distance
* No 11 year old won with over a Months absence
* They had a 0-88 record and its a poor profile
* LYSANDER fails that and has been absent 76 days
* OODACHEE also fails that and other stats
* HELLO BUD is a 12yo and looks too old for this
* No exposed horse like him won any festival handicap
* The only older horses like him had form in Grade 1 or 2
* No horse his age won any festival race like him
* Not when so well beaten last time
* Not when lacking Grade 1-2 form

* MA YAJAB has just 2 runs this season
* Horses with under 4 runs this season struggled in this
* Exposed types like him were 0-42
* Cheltenham have had 70 handicap chases
* Thats 70 races at the Festival at any distance
* I looked for exposed horses with 1-2 runs that year
* There were 3 winners but they all had 1 thing in common
* They all had form in a Grade 1 race
* No exposed horse that hadnt got Grade 1 form won
* Not with just 1-2 runs that season
* That tells me MA YAJAB wont win

* I´MONCLOUDNINE is a 7 year old
* There were 2 winning 7 year olds
* Neither were absent over a month like him
* Neither came from 3m or shorter like him
* Horses aged 7 only have a 2-52 record
* None had his weight but that doesnt bother me
* I´MONCLOUDNINE isnt like any past winner
* Cheltenham have had 70 handicap chases
* Thats 70 races at the Festival at any distance
* I looked at the record or all 7 year olds
* Those without Graded Form before struggled
* Those with 9 + runs like him won just 1 race
* That winner had a much recent run
* I´MONCLOUDNINE has questions to answer

* GALANT NUIT is 6 years old
* Horses aged 6 are 0-17 in this race since 1992
* The last 6 year old winner was in 1971
* GALANT NUIT  fails a big generic statistic
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* There were 5 winners aged 6 in these races
* None had under 4 runs that season
* None won when absent over a month
* GALANT NUIT fails both those trends
* He has been absent 124 days
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* I looked at horses like GALLANT NUIT
* Absent more than 3 months
* No form in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* Horses with that profile struggled
* Those with 13 + runs were 0-41
* This tells me he will struggle to win
* GALLANT NUIT is a negative

* SAPHIR DES BOIS is also a 6yo
* We know they are 0-17 in this race
* SAPHIR DES BOIS also steps up from 2m 4f
* There are 32 festival handicaps at 3m since 1993
* Thats 16 renewals of this race
* And 16 renewals of the William Hill Trophy
* Only 1 winner came from a 2m 4f race
* He was much older and had much less weight
* SAPHIR DES BOIS could struggle aged 6 from 2m 4f
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled anyway
* They had a 1-68 record in 16 renewals

* ISN´T THAT LUCKY has been absent 110 days
* He has only had 2 runs this season
* His trainer says he will either win or come last
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* I looked at horses with 1-2 runs this season
* When they had absences of 7 weeks or more
* When they had 9 + runs this season
* No winner aged 6-7-8 had that profile in the 70 races
* ISN´T THAT LUCKY isnt like any Festival winner
* We know 7 year olds dont score well in this anyway
* Both 7yo winners had 5 + runs this season
* Both ran within a month as well
* He also has to come from a 2m 4f race
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* They had a 1-68 record in 16 renewals
* ISN´T THAT LUCKY doesnt come out well

* NOSTRINGSATTACHED has been absent 202 days
* He fails my Generic Cheltenham statistic
* Cheltenham has had 132 Handicaps since 1993
* Thats 132 Handicaps at any distance – hurdle or chase
* Thats every handicap run at the festival in 17 years
* I looked at horses that were absent 80 + days
* I then look at those with 13 + runs
* 8 winners won with 13 + runs and 80 + days off
* The 8 winners all had 1 think in common
* They had all ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* That tells me he shouldnt defy his absence
* Especially with quite a tough weight

* FINGER ONTHE PULSE has just 2 runs this year
* He also has a 110 day absence
* That worries me for an exposed horse
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* Only 1 exposed horse won with 1-2 runs that year
* And with an absence like that
* That was Joes Edge in the 2007 William Hill Trophy
* He carries 17lbs more weight than Joes Edge did
* FINGER ONTHE PULSE has other issues
* He comes from 2m 4f
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* They had a 1-68 record in 16 renewals
* Only 2 past winners carried more weight
* Both were unexposed and had 4-5 runs that year
* No exposed horse won carrying more than 11st
* He is a course winner and they have poor records
* FINGER ONTHE PULSE fails too many angles for me

* FALTERING FULLBACK comes from a Novice race
* Horses doing that in this race were 0-40
* He also comes from 2m 4f or shorter
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* They had a 1-68 record in 16 renewals
* FALTERING FULLBACK doesnt look right

* KHACHATURIAN is a 7yo
* There were 2 winners that age win this race
* Both ran within a month
* He has been absent 41 days but thats forgiveable
* Those aged 7 from 3m 1f or shorter were 0-39
* He comes from a 2m 5f race
* Thats a little harder to forgive
* Both 7 year old winners also had at least 10lbs less weight
* Horses in this race from a Novice race were 0-40
* KHACHATURIAN fails that as well
* We know horses from 2m 6f or less are 1-68 as well
* KHACHATURIAN also has that against him
* Most of his wins come on sharp tracks as well
* His 3 runs at Cheltenham were all poor runs
* We know no exposed winner had 11st or more
* Overall not a very impressive profile

* KIA KAHA comes from 2m 5f
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* They had a 1-68 record in 16 renewals
* He is a course winner as well
* Course winners have a weak 1-81 record in 16 years
* These are the only 2 statistical problems
* I dont like his profile but others fail a lot more
* His jumping though just doesnt look good enough
* Its gone to pot lately and I couldnt trust him

* HEATHCLIFF comes out a lot better than most
* Doesnt mean he has a strong profile though
* HEATHCLIFF does have much backclass
* I looked at horses like him with no Graded form
* Those with 13 + career runs won 5 races
* Only 1 was aged under 9 years old though
* He ran far better last time and had more prep runs
* He also looks light on experience with 4 Chase runs
* There was 1 past winner with 4 runs (Honey Mount)
* Funnily enough he comes from the same Ludlow race
* That said Honey Mount won the Ludlow race
* HEATHCLIFF ran badly and nearly refused to race
* I think that makes him too risky

* BUCK THE LEGEND is shaky
* He may have a better chance than it looks
* He comes from a 2m 5f race
* We know horses 2m 6f or shorter were just 1-68
* Exposed horses from 3m or shorter last time were 1-74
* He has more weight than any exposed winner
* He isnt like any past winner and is Shaky
* I think he is well handicapped though
* Perhaps I wanted him to be stronger statistically
* Certainly has some Jumping issues as well
* Overall I cant make a strong enough case for him
* His inexperienced jockey also worries me

* BALLABRIGGS comes here with a W W record
* He has to carry Topweight in this race
* There has been 1 winner in the last 16 renewals
* That had a 11st 3lbs or more with no Graded Class
* I looked at all 70 Handicap Chases at the festival
* Thats every Handicap Chase at any distance
* I looked at horses with 11st 8lbs or more
* There were 5 winners with that weight
* All 5 had Graded Class and he doesnt
* BALLABRIGGS doesnt look great with that in mind
* He is on a roll and I would respect him
* It’s a tough task though and his mark is high
* Throw in the fact he is unproven here
* I think its a lot to ask but I cant rule him out

S E L E C T I O N

* BOYCHUK has been absent 96 days
* Royal Predica won this in 2003 with a longer break
* He was also exposed with Graded Form
* That gives hope to BOYCHUK
* That said In 70 festival handicap chases
* Thats 70 handicap chases at every distance
* Only 1 exposed horse had that absence/weight
* That leaves him looking Shaky
* He is a Course winner which hasnt been helpful
* He has won Fresh and I think he is shortlistable
* His Grade 1 form cuts him lots of slack
* He doesnt have the strong profile I would like
* BOYCHUK would be a saver for me

SHILLINGSTONE

* SHILLINGSTONE has the 1 profile I like
* He is far from statistically safe
* I have only found 1 past winner like him
* Part of his attraction is strong angles against others
* He only has 6 Chase starts
* I looked at Horses with his profile
* Horses aged 8
* Coming from a Handicap
* No Form in Class 2 races or better
* Under 7 Career runs
* Only 1 horse in  16 renewals had that profile
* That Was Bushkeeper who won in 2005
* All that does is tell me he is fine statistically
* He has 6 Chase starts but lighter raced chasers have won
* There has been recent winners with 4 and 5 chase starts
* He comes from the same Sandown race as the 1995 winner
* The Alners have had 3 runners in this race
* They finished W W 4
* SHILLINGSTONE won many point to points
* He won a Hunter Chase for the Alners Daughter
* This season he switched to the Robert and Sally Alner
* He won his first 2 races when looking well treated
* He then raced just once more last time at Sandown
* He was a little bit dissapointing in 6th place
* Heavy Ground hurt his chance with an 83 day break
* I think he had a good excuse that day
* I think he ran with this race in mind anyway
* Well backed when the weights came out
* He was always laid out for this race
* I think there are massive holes in his opposition
* SHILLINGSTONE looks the likely winner

****************************************************

Posted under Major Horse Races