NATIONAL HUNT CHASE

Cheltenham 2.40 pm Wednesday

 

One of the things I hate is listening to self appointed

experts who repeat bland clichés about things like a

horse’s stamina. I hear them churn out that “a horse

will stay all day” and “it won’t fail for lack of stamina.”

Many people look at Sire Statistics to try and find if

a Sire has bred winners over the distance or on the

ground. It is very unscientific but no less so than so

many other different approaches to picking horses.

 

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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

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Today I want to look at Wednesday’s National Hunt

Chase. Run over 4 miles it is a race where stamina

most definitely comes into play.

A simplistic stamina check is to see if a horse’s sire

has bred winners at long distances.

 

I however want to go the extra mile, dig a bit deeper

and determine if it has done it in the class and on the ground.

 

I have done it this way.

 

* I looked at all the Sires winners

* I found out how many won at 3m 4f or more

* I found out how many have done that on Soft ground

* I found out how many of those did it in Class 3 or more

 

Below you can see my executive summary of this sire research

 

SIRE PERFORMANCE RANKINGS

1) GODSMEJUDGE- Excellent Performance scores

2) MERRY KING – Excellent Performance scores

3) SEA OF THUNDER – Excellent Performance scores

4) VESPER BELL – Enough promise to pass as fine

5) BENHEIR -Enough promise to pass as fine

6) ROSE OF THE MOON – Acceptable scores

7) HIGHLAND LODGE – Acceptable scores

8 ) EMPEROR´S CHOICE – Acceptable scores

9) HAWKES POINT – Not far away but has a bit to prove

10)TOUR DES CHAMPS – Borderline Results

11) BACK IN FOCUS – Stamina not guaranteed

12) RIVAL D´ESTRUVAL – Inconclusive and unproven

13) REAL MILAN – Unproven but small sample size

14) LYREEN LEGEND – Inconclusive and unproven

15) TOFINO BAY – Inconclusive but stamina doubts

16) BUDDY BOLERO – Doubts about stamina

 

For most of you that executive summary will be all you need

to add an element of Sire / Stamina assessment to your own analysis

of this race.

 

I have however posted on our private member message

boards an additional full breakdown of every horse

and a record of the winners the sire has had when

the ground was soft and when running in the class.

I do not want to clutter this piece listing everything.

 

Below however is the section on the current market leader

 

* BACK IN FOCUS

* The Sire has 517 winners

* Record over 3m 4f or more is 7-97

* Record on Softer Ground over 3m 4f + is 4-80

* Softer Ground at 3m 4f in Class 3 + is 1-24

* There is a slight problem here

* Minella Four Star won the 2011 Midlands National

* That was 4m 1f in Listed Class on Good to Soft

* That was the winner in the 1-24 record

* Officially it was Good to Soft that day

* It was actually good ground as it dried out

* You could see this as a 0-23 or a 1-24 record

* Depends which side of the fence you want to sit

* Results and Assessment of his Stamina Profile

* 0-23 or 1-24 record. Stamina not quite certain

 

This analysis leads me to believe there are stamina doubts

about this horse.

 

Bear in mind however that stamina and sire analysis is only one

piece of the puzzle.

I have many more checks to do before considering

my own final selection for this race on Wednesday.

 

I do hope you are with me as a client under of discounted and

guaranteed Cheltenham deal at that point.

Here is the cheap deal link

 

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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

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Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

PS New clients who joined us for last Saturday

have already had their bank rolls boosted for Cheltenham.

Three advised tips – Won 4/1 – 2nd at 7/1 to land each way advice

and a yet to run long odds ante post tip for Cheltenham day 1

 

 

PPS If you are a bit of a stat head and would like a copy of the

stamina stats for the other runners in this race, just contact me and say so

clearly. I will pass them on to you.

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races